MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly approved industrial development plan. This target is included in the scenario outlined in Russia’s updated coal strategy. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government ratified the programme via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term goals for production, exports, and industry growth.
The plan presents four potential pathways for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary scenario, production reaches 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and increases to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. It then climbs to the 662 million tonne mark by 2050. The remaining scenarios project lower 2050 production figures, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia also set export benchmarks. The primary scenario anticipates coal exports reaching 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. They are expected to grow to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme encompasses both domestic coal consumption and international markets.
Goals for Production and Exports
The government’s plan mandates that Russia preserves its current mining capacity while also developing additional coal resources. It emphasizes a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. Their combined share of total national production was 48.3% in 2024, with a projected increase to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports having over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The strategy also sets targets related to coal processing and mining techniques. In 2024, the processed coal (excluding lignite) accounted for 58.9%. The plan aims to raise this percentage to between 74% and 76% by 2050. In 2024, open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of total production, with the long-term goal of increasing its share to between 82% and 85%. The document also addresses productivity improvements, technological advancements, safety standards, and environmental measures.
Coal Industry Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia will implement the programme through three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, spanning 2031 to 2036, will concentrate on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase from 2037 to 2050 will oversee long-term development. The Energy Ministry will track the programme’s progress in collaboration with federal, regional authorities, and participating organizations. Annual reports will be submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development as per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated programme during a government session on September 21. This document replaces the previous coal development plan through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the plan projects a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne figure remains a scenario target rather than an unconditional forecast.