BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, road fuel prices are projected to cause an increase of approximately €53 billion in European Union transport costs. The estimate was released by Transport & Environment on September 23 after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending on September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditures during this period to the same timeframe the previous year, adjusting figures for inflation. Diesel was responsible for roughly €40 billion of the total added expense. This calculation encompasses spending on diesel and petrol associated with road transportation.
T&E estimated that rising fuel prices increased EU road transport costs by an average of €270 million daily. Of this, diesel contributed about €203 million per day, while petrol made up approximately €67 million. The organization linked this escalation to constrained refined-fuel supplies amid the Middle East conflict and refinery outages in Russia. These disruptions widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil also constitute about 43% of the petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately noted substantial volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply issues. They reported increased refinery output within the EU and the availability of alternative global supplies sufficient to meet demand. Additionally, commercial and emergency oil reserves remain ample. However, geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising Diesel Costs Impact Drivers and Freight Companies
For individual drivers, T&E estimated that the average diesel car owner in the EU spent about €142 more during the period studied. As of September 14, the group calculated a €30 premium on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to the pre-conflict baseline. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an additional weekly fuel expense of around €236 on average. According to the analysis, Europe has approximately 6.2 million trucks operating on its roads. The increase in diesel prices has also affected freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains a key fuel for EU transport and freight activities. T&E reported that in 2024, road transport accounted for 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption. According to Eurostat data, gas and diesel oils provided 63.2% of the energy used for road transport that year. Motor gasoline contributed 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels supplied 6.2%. Electricity made up just 0.7%, with diesel and gasoline together representing 90.1% of road transport energy in 2024.
Recent EU Data Continues to Highlight Fuel Price Fluctuations
On September 24, the European Commission issued its latest Weekly Oil Bulletin, featuring current consumer petroleum prices across EU nations. This report tracks weekly prices both including and excluding taxes and maintains a historical record dating back to 2005. The update follows the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The European Commission compiles national price data and regularly compares figures across member states. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel as among the products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate by the environmental organization rather than an official EU figure. It reflects additional road fuel expenditures during the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report further examines impacts on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, noting that diesel accounts for most of the projected increase. T&E has called for measures to curb diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continues to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.