POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – A new study indicates that climate change might nearly triple the land affected by wildfires across Europe annually by the year 2100. The researchers project a 192% rise in yearly burned territory under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global temperature increase. This research follows recent significant 2026 wildfires that impacted Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The primary climate factors identified as driving these events are hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers evaluated a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower scenario correlates with roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the higher reaches about 3.6°C. Socioeconomic variables were kept constant in separate tests to analyze their influence on wildfire spread independently.
One of the models predicted approximately a 39% increase in annual land burned by the end of this century under the low-emissions pathway. A second model suggested a potential decline, due to its different treatment of historical human impact. Under the high-emissions scenario, both models indicated a much more significant expansion in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and throughout large parts of Western and Central Europe. Several of these regions have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Models demonstrate that emissions influence the extent of burned land
The research shows that fire weather conditions and firefighting capacity are key factors affecting future wildfire incidence across Europe. Additionally, variables like population density, vegetation shifts, and land utilization contribute to the regional variations observed. Maik Billing, the lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explains that the analysis distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human influences that can alter fire spread.
Enhanced efforts in prevention, early detection, and firefighting could reduce the area burned by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The potential for reduction is greater under the lower-emissions scenario and diminishes with increased warming. Despite ongoing advancements in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s vulnerable regions could still see increased fire activity under severe climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler, affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, emphasizes this point.
Proactive fire management can help contain wildfire spread
These findings emerge amid a particularly intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, characterized by dry and extremely hot conditions that have ignited numerous fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, though regions further north were also affected. The projections from this study indicate that fire activity will extend beyond the Mediterranean region, with increased occurrences across Western and Central Europe. The authors note that these patterns reflect changing fire weather patterns driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
The study does not suggest that the projected 192% rise in burned land is an unavoidable outcome. Instead, it represents a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the study’s assumptions. The researchers identified a much smaller increase under lower emissions, with significant reductions possible through improved fire management practices. Nonetheless, even with enhanced fire control efforts, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone zones could still face increased wildfire activity under the strongest climate change scenarios. The findings highlight emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and management capabilities as critical factors shaping the continent’s future wildfire landscape.