ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts that global cereal output in 2026 will total 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s historic peak. Despite this dip, the organization states that the total still ranks as the second-largest harvest on record. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its projection from July. This annual reduction of 61.1 million tonnes marks the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
Forecasts indicate that worldwide maize production will reach 1.309 billion tonnes after diminished crop prospects revised the earlier estimate downward. Hot summer weather and dry conditions negatively affected yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. In addition, official estimates led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. In contrast, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, helping to offset the reductions and resulting in both countries producing well above average maize quantities in 2026.
The forecast for world wheat production is set at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Improved yield expectations have raised projections for Canada and Morocco by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each. Expectations for Russia and Ukraine also grew, while dry conditions lowered forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these upward revisions, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and remains the second-largest crop ever recorded.
Maize declines lead to downgrade in global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% drop from the revised record in 2025/26. The latest figure benefited from stronger yields in Sri Lanka and improved results in Myanmar. These positive factors offset declines in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO projects that world cereal consumption will reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, although wheat use is anticipated to decrease from the elevated levels seen last season. Total global rice use is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed requirements remain significant, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States playing key roles.
Stockpiles of grains stay at historically comfortable levels
At the end of the 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are forecast to be 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes lower than the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than initial opening stocks. The cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded last season. Reserves for wheat are forecast to increase in Russia and Ukraine, yet overall stocks are constrained by lower inventories of maize and barley.
In 2026/27, international cereal trade is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, marking an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nevertheless, the total remains below the record volume seen in 2025/26. The rise mainly stems from higher maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Worldwide rice trade in 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice exports still 1.9% below the 2025 record.
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